PhosCo (ASX:PHO) has delivered a material step-change in the resource inventory at its wholly owned Gasaât Phosphate Project in Tunisia, with the release of maiden Mineral Resource Estimates (MREs) for the KM and SAB prospects.

A low strip ratio is key to Gasaât’s appeal

The two new deposits add 20.2Mt @ 20.5% P₂O₅ to the project total, lifting Gasaât’s global JORC resource to 166.6Mt @ 20.6% P₂O₅, of which 92% is now in the higher-confidence Measured and Indicated categories. Critically, KM carries an average strip ratio of just 0.4:1, making it one of the most attractive near-surface phosphate deposits in North Africa and ideally positioned as a starter deposit that could substantially improve early-year project economics. PhosCo also announced a discovery at the DOH prospect. Eight drill holes intersected phosphate mineralisation over a 1,300m strike length and a width exceeding 600 metres, with 13m drill thickness. PhosCo plans to define a resource in due course and believes a Resource could be even greater than KM and SAB.

Phosphate prices are headed upwards

The Gasaât resource expansion arrives at a point of significant market dislocation for the phosphate market. China suspended phosphate fertiliser exports through August 2026, and the US-Iran conflict in the Middle East has disrupted Gulf supply chains that collectively account for nearly 30% of global phosphate trade. DAP prices have risen above US$690/mt and are expected to remain elevated through the remainder of 2026. Tunisia’s Mediterranean location, independent of Gulf shipping lanes, gives Gasaât a structural supply-chain advantage that is becoming increasingly apparent to potential offtake partners and financiers alike.

Valuation of A$0.35–0.56 per share with further upside possible

We’ve valued A$0.35 per share in our base case and A$0.56 per share in our bull case, and we plan to revisit the model upon the company’s release of an updated Scoping Study incorporating the expanded resource base, advanced mine planning and recent metallurgical test work; due in Q3 2026. We see potential for an NPV > $1bn on the basis of lower costs given a low strip ratio. Please see page 17 for the key risks.