Alma Metals (ASX:ALM) has more than tripled in market capitalisation since last November’s initiation note. The Queensland-focused copper developer has a 51% stake in the Briggs project with Indicated and inferred resources of 932Mt at 0.21% copper, equating to 2Mt contained copper. The project is one of only two large-scale Australian porphyry copper projects in the pipeline with the other being Caravel’s namesake project.

Alma Metals investors have reason to be pleased at present, and confident in the future

Alma Metals’ 2026 drilling campaign is well underway with a second diamond rig set to be deployed following the recent acquisition of a dedicated exploration camp. Six infill holes had been completed for approximately 2,080m by the end of the June quarter, all consistent with the existing geological model, with assays due progressively from August and in full before the end of September. The aim is to build the geological and metallurgical confidence to support a Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS). Initial results for the first 3 drill holes are strongly encouraging.

The Evolution-Carnaby deal bodes well for Alma

Alma’s news flow lands against a backdrop of accelerating consolidation across the Queensland copper sector. Evolution Mining’s agreed A$213m acquisition of Carnaby Resources (ASX:CNB), announced on 27 July 2026, brings the Greater Duchess copper-gold project near Cloncurry into Evolution’s Ernest Henry hub and is the latest in a run of transactions that illustrate how scarce large, de-risked copper resources in Tier-1 jurisdictions have become. We think this indicates how a de-risked Briggs, sitting close to the port, rail and power infrastructure around Gladstone, could ultimately be valued by the market or by a potential acquirer, backed up by significant M&A activity in other Australian states during the last couple of years.

Significant upside could be realised post-PFS in 2027

We reiterate our view that once a PFS is delivered (which is anticipated in 2027), Alma Metals could ultimately trade at a low- to mid-teens percentage of that figure of the PFS’ NPV. We’ve previously modelled that Briggs could be worth A$2.9bn. Please see page 11 of our note for further details and page 13 for key investment risks.