PhosCo (ASX:PHO) is a phosphate development company advancing the Gasaat project in Tunisia. The company’s hope is that it can bring the project into production and that it can go a significant way towards fulfilling the world’s needs for phosphate, a need that has become more apparent amidst the current market disruptions.

The need for Gasaat is becoming more apparent

Investors will think of the war in the Middle East, but China’s decision on 14 March 2026 to suspend all exports of phosphate and phosphate-containing fertilisers adds further strain to an already disrupted global market. The Iran conflict has intensified risks across commodity supply chains, particularly fertilisers, where Gulf producers hold an outsized share of global trade (almost 30%). Phosphate is essential not only for fertilisers, which underpin around half of global food production, but also for LFP batteries, where PO₄ represents about 60% of cell chemistry. Against this backdrop, PhosCo’s Gasaat project in Tunisia gains strategic relevance. Tunisia’s Mediterranean location provides flexible shipping routes to Europe and global markets, independent of the Gulf chokepoint.

The full potential is being unlocked

PhosCo is positioning itself to unlock Gasaat’s long-recognised phosphate potential, just at the right time. The project already hosts 146Mt at 20.6% P₂O₅, supporting nearly five decades of production and averaging 1.5Mtpa in its first ten years – based
solely on two of nine prospects. With legal barriers now resolved and drilling delivering thick, high-grade, near-surface mineralisation close to the proposed plant site, the company is preparing a maiden MRE for the KM and SAB prospects and a revised Scoping Study that incorporates the project’s expanding resource base. These steps, followed by a Bankable Feasibility Study and ongoing engagement with financiers and offtake partners, form the pathway to potential first production in mid-2028. Each milestone represents a material catalyst, particularly given the strong exploration results that continue to reinforce Gasaat’s scale and quality.

Valuation range of $0.35-0.56 per share

We continue to value PhosCo at $0.35 per share in our base case scenario and $0.56 per share in our optimistic (or bull) case scenario. This is based on a DCF basis, modelling the Gasaat project using similar inputs to the 2022 Scoping Study, and accounting for financial dilution that will be required to fund the project. Please see page 10 for further details on our valuation rationale and page 12 for the key risks.