Nearly 3 months since our initiation note, the investment thesis for Amaero (ASX:3DA) is even more compelling now than it was then.

A first mover in the market

3DA is a first-mover US domestic producer of refractory and titanium spherical powders, operating the only EIGA Premium atomisers in the United States, positioned squarely in the path of one of the most powerful industrial policy tailwinds of the modern era. America’s drive to rebuild its defence industrial base (a drive we described as the Arsenal of Democracy 2.0) was already generating contracts and revenue. The events of the past several weeks, namely the military situation in the Middle East, have strengthened it considerably.

Iran has strengthened the case for Amaero

The Iran conflict has not created the Amaero opportunity, but it has materially accelerated the urgency with which the US defence establishment and its prime contractors need what Amaero supplies. Even if the war ended now, the global geopolitical situation is unstable, and conflicts could break out just as suddenly. Wars consume munitions, missiles, hypersonic systems, and the advanced materials required to manufacture them at pace. Amaero supplies titanium and refractory alloy powders, including niobium C103, that are indispensable to exactly those classes of weapons.

For evidence of Amaero’s momentum, investors need look no further than recent news that the company signed a new A$7.8m supplier agreement, adding to its contracted revenue pipeline. We expect the company to sign several more contracts over the next 12-18 months. Operational momentum will be driven by the company’s 3rd and 4th atomisers being brought online (the 3rd in June 2026 & the 4th in 2027) along with the Argon recycling plant will be brought online in 2027, which will reduce argon consumption costs by 80%, not to mention the financial windfall from the 2nd atomiser, which came online in June 2025.

Valuation of A$0.62-1.30 per share reiterated

We maintain our valuation range of A$0.62 per share in a base case and A$1.30 per share in an optimistic case. Please see page 10 for the key risks.